Regarding international trade, the characteristics and causes of the sandwich economy.
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Regarding international trade, the characteristics and causes of the sandwich economy.
The world economy is sandwiched into sandwich, difficult!
The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund Simon Johnson (middle) at the "Latest Forecast of the World Economic Outlook" conference
R N International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the "Latest Forecast of the World Economic Outlook" on the 17th. Compared with the "World Economic Outlook" released by this organization in April, this report slightly increases the expectations of world economic growth. However, the report especially expressed concerns about inflation risks, and believes that the slowdown in the demand for developed economies and the rise in inflation in emerging and developing economies have caused the world economy to be "difficult times."
slightly increased expectations
The newly released "Latest World Economic Outlook The Latest Forecast" is an updated version of "World Economic Outlook" in April.
The reports predict that the growth rates of the global economy in 2008 and 2009 were 4.1 % and 3.9 %, respectively. IMF April's global growth rate of this year and Ming and Ming Dynasty was 3.7 % and 3.8 %.
The economic expectations for slightly raising the latest forecast to the United States, the euro area, Japan and China and other countries and regions.
IMF predicts that the economic growth rates in the United States in 2008 and 2009 were 1.3 % and 0.8 %, respectively, respectively by 0.8 % and 0.2 % compared with the April expectations, respectively. China's economic growth rate will slow down to 9.7 % and 9.8 % this year and next year, respectively, respectively, respectively by 0.4 % and 0.3 % compared with the April expectations, respectively.
A despite raising expectations, it is far less than 5 % of the global economic growth rate of 5 % in 2007. The report said: "Global economic growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2008, and it will gradually recover from the beginning of 2009."
"Dynamics", the growth rate fell from 8 % in 2007 to about 7 % in 2008.
The chief economist Simon Johnson, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said that although the economic development in the first half of 2008 was better than the previous expectations of the IMF, the "global economic recession risk" still exists.
The economic experts have previously said that if the global economic growth rate falls below 3 %, it will lead to recession.
In worry of inflation
IMF particularly expressed concerns about global inflation risks in the latest forecast. rising trend.
Johnson said: "Due to inflation, the global economic situation has become more complicated since April."
IMF predicts that the inflation rate of developed economies in 2008 was 3. 4 %, an increase of 0.8 % compared to the April expectations. Under the dual effect of slow demand and the price of primary products tending to stabilize, inflation will fall in 2009.
The inflation pressure in the emerging and development economies will increase sharply. In 2008, the inflation rate is expected to be 9.1 %, and the IMF April April Meaning of these economic inflation is 7.4 %.
The reports that in many countries, the rise in food prices and oil prices has pushed the inflation rate.
The report said: "Due to the sharp slowdown in the demand of many developed economies, and other economies, especially in the development of emerging and developing economies, have increased inflation rates in economies, and the global economy is in a difficult situation."
The statement of national policy
The reports that policy makers of various countries will face difficult situations and "both need to control inflation pressure and consider downward risk of economic growth."
IMF put forward different monetary regulatory policies for developed economies and emerging and developing economies.
The reports that, for developed economies, although the necessity of currency tightening policy has increased, due to the better expectations of inflation and weak economic growth, whether the tightening policy still needs to adopt a tightening policy still needs to still need to adopt a tightening policy. Careful consideration, at the same time, still need to pay close attention to inflation.
For many emerging economies, especially those economies that are still too fast, we need to implement a tightening monetary policy and strengthen fiscal constraints.
The report especially pointed out that high oil prices and high grain prices "make some countries in an emergency". Because the price pressure will not be significantly alleviated in the future, some countries, especially low -income countries, are facing. Policy challenges will be how to meet the demand for domestic food, but at the same time ensure that inflation and flower light reserves are not pushed up.